Global Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC) Market Size (2024 - 2030)

The Global Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC) Market reached a valuation of 14.68 USD billion and is anticipated to achieve USD 46.35 billion by the culmination of 2030. Predictions indicate a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.85% during the forecast period spanning from 2024 to 2030.

Industry Overview:

Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (AUSC) technology aims to enhance the efficiency of power plants by reducing coal consumption for electricity generation and subsequently curtailing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. AUSC power plants boast the potential to operate at significantly higher temperatures and pressures compared to contemporary coal-fired plants, offering approximately 25 percent higher efficiency than the average U.S. coal-fired power plant fleet, and 10 percent greater environmental efficiency compared to existing coal-fired power plants. Implementation of AUSC technology is anticipated to lower coal consumption per megawatt-hour, leading to reduced CO2 and mercury emissions, as well as decreased fuel costs per megawatt.

The realization of AUSC technology involves the fabrication of advanced nickel superalloys into large-scale plant components, the advancement of installation and repair techniques for these nickel superalloy components, and rigorous testing and metallurgical analysis to support the final design of a commercial-scale AUSC demonstration plant.

Research and development efforts on AUSC technology commenced in the early 2000s, with the Department of Energy (DOE) funding projects aimed at identifying and advancing materials necessary to operate coal-fired AUSC steam power cycles at temperatures and pressures as high as 760 degrees Celsius and 5000 psi. Cooperative agreements were established between DOE, NETL, and private sector partners such as Energy Industries of Ohio (EIO) to investigate advanced materials for boilers and steam turbines. Key manufacturers involved in these early projects included Alstom, Babcock, Wilcox, Foster Wheeler, Riley Power, General Electric, and Siemens.

By 2015, research confirmed that nickel superalloys such as Inconel 740 and Haynes H282 possessed the requisite fabricability, castability, long-term mechanical strength, and corrosion/steam oxidation resistance properties essential for fossil power plants operating at temperatures up to 760 degrees Celsius and 5000 psi steam conditions.

The ongoing AUSC project with EIO, titled "Advanced Ultra supercritical (AUSC) Component Testing," aims to significantly enhance the technological readiness of AUSC technology by manufacturing full-scale AUSC components from nickel superalloys and other advanced alloys. The size of the components to be fabricated corresponds to a coal-fired power plant with approximately 800 megawatts generation capacity operating at a steam temperature of 760 degrees Celsius (1400 degrees Fahrenheit) and steam pressure of at least 238 bars (3500 psi). Specific components to be fabricated under this project scope include an AUSC superheater tube assembly, large diameter thick wall pipe and pipe fittings, an AUSC steam turbine rotor, and an AUSC steam turbine nozzle carrier casting.

COVID-19 Impact on Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC) Market:

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the market, leading to the suspension of ongoing research projects and halting progress in various related endeavors. Disruptions in coal supply chains have further compounded challenges, resulting in the temporary cessation of numerous power plants. Additionally, the pandemic has escalated production costs and impeded research and development activities, contributing to heightened operational complexities.

Market Drivers:

The market is primarily driven by the superior efficiency offered by AUSC products.

The ultra-supercritical boiler segment, characterized by enhanced plant efficiency and reduced carbon emissions, is poised to emerge as the fastest-growing segment within the advanced utility boilers market during the forecast period. Adoption of new technologies such as advanced ultra-supercritical boilers, boasting cycle efficiency exceeding 50% and consequently emitting lower carbon emissions, is anticipated to witness widespread acceptance among power plant owners, thereby creating significant opportunities for the future advanced utility boiler market. The Asia-Pacific region, driven by rapid and substantial growth in power consumption, is expected to dominate the advanced utility boilers market, both in terms of size and growth rate. In 2018, approximately 42% of global primary energy consumption originated from the Asia-Pacific region.

Market Restraints:

Lack of Knowledge is restraining the growth of the market

A notable constraint inhibiting market growth is the lack of awareness and understanding regarding AUSC technology. Many companies are leveraging the technology for profitability; however, the absence of infrastructure and facilities for AUSC products and equipment in most power plants impedes market expansion.

Global Market for Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC) - By Type:

• Subcritical
• Supercritical
• Ultra-supercritical
• Others

Within the classification based on type, ultra-supercritical boilers operate under conditions of strain and temperature significantly surpassing the critical point of water, where liquid and gas phases coexist in equilibrium. This unique operational point eliminates the distinction between water gas and liquid water, resulting in enhanced cycle efficiency of 45% or more.

Several nations globally have committed to reducing carbon emissions to mitigate the greenhouse effect. Consequently, many countries are modernizing their power plants to adopt ultra-supercritical boilers, aiming to fulfill these environmental objectives.

In response to escalating electricity demands, nations increasingly favor ultra-supercritical boilers due to their superior cycle efficiency, reduced fuel consumption, and diminished flue gas emissions.

The inauguration of Unit-1 at the Khargone Super Thermal Power Station in Madhya Pradesh by India's National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) in 2019 marked the launch of India's premier ultra-supercritical plant. Operating at an efficiency of 41.5%, this plant boasts a capacity of 660 megawatts (MW).

Consequently, owing to these factors, the ultra-supercritical segment is poised to experience the most rapid growth within the advanced utility boilers market during the forecast period.

Global Market for Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC) - By Fuel:

• Coal
• Natural Gas
• Others

Regarding applications, the coal segment remains the predominant source for power production globally, contributing to over 80% of total electricity generation. Given the high reliance on coal, it is anticipated to continue dominating the market. Natural gas follows as the second-largest segment, expected to expand further due to increasing environmental consciousness favoring natural energy sources.

Global Market for Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC) - By Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• Latin America
• The Middle East
• Africa

Geographically, the Asia-Pacific region stands out due to its rapid industrialization and urbanization, leading to a significant surge in energy demand. Consequently, the region hosts numerous power plant expansion projects to meet this escalating demand, positioning it as the largest and fastest-growing market for advanced utility boilers.

Furthermore, countries like China, India, and Japan are either upgrading existing power plants or incorporating advanced boilers into their upcoming projects, thereby propelling the market for advanced utility boilers.

In 2018, electricity generation in Asia-Pacific totaled 12,273.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), surpassing the previous year's figure of 11,578.2 TWh. Notably, around 73% of this electricity was generated from fossil fuels, emphasizing the region's heavy reliance on boilers for electricity generation.

In 2019, a collaboration between the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) was initiated to establish an 800 MW technology demonstration plant (TDP) in Sipat, Chhattisgarh. This joint venture aims to showcase domestically developed advanced ultra-supercritical (AUSC) technology, projected to reduce CO2 emissions by 20%.

Moreover, in 2019, Malaysia's TenagaNasionalBhd (TNB) commissioned one of two ultra-supercritical coal-fired power plants in Port Dickson, with a combined capacity of 1,000 MW. Consequently, Asia-Pacific is expected to maintain its dominance in the advanced utility boilers market throughout the forecast period.

Key Players in the Global Market for Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC):

1. General Electric Company
2. Sumitomo Corp
3. Mitsubishi Corp
4. Larsen & Toubro Limited
5. Doosan Corp.,

 Noteworthy Developments in the Global Market for Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Technology (AUSC) in Recent Times:

• Project Launch: In June 2022, India's inaugural advanced ultra-supercritical thermal power plant is set to commence operations at the Sipat station of the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) in Chhattisgarh.
• Announcement: In April 2021, Adani Power Limited announced plans to commission the Godda Ultra Super Critical Thermal Power Project by March 2022. Situated in Jharkhand, India, the plant boasts an installed capacity of 1,600 MW.